After a historic surge of interest and market growth following President-elect Donald Trump’s win, the cryptocurrency industry hopes to have an even better 2025.
Trump’s win and President Joe Biden’s oncoming departure have excited crypto enthusiasts and caused the price of bitcoin to surge to new all-time highs in a postelection rally. That growth came largely from expectations of a friendly environment under Trump, but 2025 is when the rubber meets the road.
“We’re just, in general, very bullish because of President Trump’s support, the administrative state hopefully will be kept in check and will not be attacking us constantly, and we see a real path for some beneficial legislation for the industry as well,” Brian Morgenstern, head of public policy at Riot Platforms, told the Washington Examiner.
The crypto world considers the Biden administration and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, in particular, to be adversarial to digital assets.
Earlier this year, the Biden administration found itself at odds with crypto proponents by opposing bipartisan legislation that passed the House 279-136 and is meant to bring regulatory clarity for digital assets while safeguarding investors and consumers.
Additionally, several Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), broke with the administration and voted in May to cancel an SEC accounting policy rule related to cryptocurrency that critics argue discourages companies and major custodians from holding crypto assets for customers.
This election was also the first in which the crypto industry played a notable role. Top bitcoin miners launched a new nonprofit organization called the Bitcoin Voter Project, which is focused on educating and galvanizing voters around bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Morgenstern is also the president of the group and said he is looking forward to big changes in 2025.
One thing that Morgenstern is optimistic about next year is the possible formation of a strategic bitcoin reserve, an idea that has gained traction.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) told the Washington Examiner last month that she is planning to refile legislation that would create such a reserve. She previously filed the BITCOIN Act, legislation that would form a strategic bitcoin reserve, earlier this year, but it did not attract co-sponsors.
A strategic bitcoin reserve would be a U.S. reserve containing a large amount of the cryptocurrency. Specifically, Lummis’s plan would initiate a bitcoin purchase program with the goal of the United States acquiring a total stake of approximately 5% of the total bitcoin supply — a million bitcoins, which is worth more than $100 billion in today’s prices.
Proponents say such a reserve could function as a hedge against inflation and prevent further devaluation of the dollar while maintaining global dominance in financial innovation. Critics, though, say it is a solution in search of a problem and risky, given the volatility and uncertainty surrounding the relatively new asset class.
Jennifer Schulp, director of financial regulation studies at the Cato Institute, told the Washington Examiner that she is expecting regulatory changes in 2025 that will be beneficial to the industry.
“I’m focused now on the SEC primarily and I expect a lot of changes there, in terms of just generally a shifting strategy from what Gary Gensler has been implementing for the past almost four years,” Schulp said.
She expects enforcement to slow down and that a number of SEC cases that are currently under investigation will be halted, particularly if they don’t involve fraud. She also expects the new SEC to get to work crafting a regulatory regime “that makes sense for crypto.”
Utkarsh Ahuja, founder and CEO of Moon Pursuit Capital, pointed out that Trump nominated former Commissioner Paul Atkins, a proponent of cryptocurrencies and financial deregulation, to lead the SEC.
As head of the SEC, Atkins will likely be a stark contrast to Gensler. Atkins is co-chairman of the Token Alliance, an initiative from the bitcoin and crypto advocacy group Chamber of Digital Commerce.
“He is definitely very pro-crypto, and not only that, he has a good knowledge of crypto, and I think that’s going to be a big blessing for the industry in terms of easing up on regulations that just, frankly, didn’t make sense from classifying varying different cryptos and securities,” Ahuja told the Washington Examiner.
However, Ahuja said it isn’t even just on the regulatory side that 2025 is set to be a big year for the industry — he also said he expects institutional acceptance and adoption of cryptocurrency to grow in the coming year.
The SEC’s landmark decision to allow bitcoin spot ETFs came in early 2024 after years of waiting by cryptocurrency advocates and hope from large institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity that their applications would get approved. Ahuja expects more ETFs to be filed in 2025.
Investors are bullish that recent gains could continue into the new year, given the friendly environment toward digital assets.
A day before the election, a single bitcoin was worth about $68,000. The cryptocurrency has provided a 56% return on investment since then. Zooming out even further, bitcoin has vaulted up 140% in value since the start of the year and more than 150% from this time last year.
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Schulp said generally, given the incoming administration’s favorability toward crypto, there will likely be some increased crypto price support in the year ahead.
Ahuja predicted that the price of bitcoin, which is hovering around $100,000 (it was at $95,000 as of Thursday afternoon), could hit $120,000 by the time Trump is inaugurated in late January. He said while there will be volatility in the year ahead, bitcoin could, in his base case, go to $160,000 in the third or fourth quarter or, in a bullish scenario, move as high as $240,000.
